Space-time wind speed forecasting for improved power system dispatch

To support large-scale integration of wind power into electric energy systems, state-of-the-art wind speed forecasting methods should be able to provide accurate and adequate information to enable efficient, reliable, and cost-effective scheduling of wind power. Here, we incorporate space-time wind forecasts into electric power system scheduling. First, we propose a modified regime-switching, space-time wind speed forecasting model that allows the forecast regimes to vary with the dominant wind direction and with the seasons, hence avoiding a subjective choice of regimes. Then, results from the wind forecasts are incorporated into a power system economic dispatchmodel, the cost of which is used as a lossmeasure of the quality of the forecast The work of the first two authors was supported in part by NSF Grant DMS-1007504. The work of the last two authors was supported in part by NSF ECCS Grant 1150944. This publication is partly based on work supported by Award No. KUS-C1-016-04 made by King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST). This invited paper is discussed in comments available at: doi:10.1007/s11749-014-0352-z, doi:10.1007/ s11749-014-0353-y, doi:10.1007/s11749-014-0354-x, doi:10.1007/s11749-014-0355-9. X. Zhu Department of Statistics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-3143, USA e-mail: [email protected] M. G. Genton (B) CEMSE Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia e-mail: [email protected] Y. Gu · L. Xie Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-3128, USA e-mail: [email protected] L. Xie e-mail: [email protected]